Google Gains, Apple Stays Steady, And Palm Loses In Smartphone Share

Thursday, March 11, 2010 by Samantha Singh
In the three months between October and January, Android’s overall share of smartphone subscribers in the U.S. rose 4.3 points to 7.1 percent, according to mobile market share data released by comScore.  Android showed the biggest single gain of any of the top five smartphone platforms.  Apple’s share was virtually flat at 25.2 percent (up 0.3 percent), while RIM’s Blackberries saw a 1.7 percent gain to 43 percent.

See the original post:
Google Gains, Apple Stays Steady, And Palm Loses In Smartphone Share

Living with fragmentation in the mobile space

Thursday, March 4, 2010 by Mark Cameron
I really enjoyed a TechCrunch article by Richard Wong this morning that addresses the challenging realities of mobile platform fragmentation.

I think the article is spot-on, and as a so-called "battle-scarred mobile veteran" I especially like the following quote:

"the good news is that there are quite a few battle-scarred mobile veterans around that can help you with the Cliff Notes on the industry. Find one to help you."

Like every challenge, mobile fragmentation provides opportunity as well. The great thing about the current frenzy of mobile activity is that it presents consumers with a great deal of choice, reflecting the young and dynamic nature of this industry. It is difficult to stay on top of mobile trends, but not impossible with a little help from your friends.

Making sense of the mobile platform jungle

Monday, March 1, 2010 by Mark Cameron
I've been getting very close to most of the mobile platforms on the market today, and wanting to summarize my thoughts about their potential impact on mobile research. Seeing Samantha's February 25th post about smartphone market share, a brain-dump on the subject should dovetail nicely...

Looking back on key announcements over the past year, Google, Apple and more recently Microsoft have made the most significant splashes in terms of mobile innovation. However, when the dust settles we still see Nokia and Research in Motion (RIM) leading the charge with 47% and 20%, respectively, of the mobile OS market in 2009. Why is this the case, and what can we expect to see moving forward?

I believe the current mobile market is a race between 5 horses, but I will not count others out over the long term due to the still-early nature of this arena. The key players today are:
  • Apple: since its release, the iPhone has set the bar for smartphone usability; its slightly thinner sibling, the iPod touch, is the definition of a sleek, modern Personal Digital Assistant (PDA); and the forthcoming iPad is one of the most anticipated products of all time. Simply put, Apple has a lot of swagger and momentum in the mobile space. But Apple runs a very closed environment that people either love or hate, and this creates opportunities for other more open platforms to shine. Also, while Apple has done very well in the consumer space, it has made fewer inroads into the enterprise, where RIM and Microsoft thrive.
  • Research in Motion (RIM): the BlackBerry is one of the most impressive brands of our time. While RIM is often considered less marketing savvy than Apple, I would suggest that their marketing tactics have been every bit as effective as Apple's -- just different. Despite a barrage of criticism about the sexiness and usability of their products, RIM continues to grow and profit at an astounding rate. I personally questioned the usability of BlackBerry products compared to more elegant competitors like iPhone and Android, but I have come to appreciate them as solid, enterprise-worthy devices, and to see the company as a very savvy player in the mobile space. RIM has developed very deep roots with both wireless carriers and enterprise IT departments, as well as a powerful brand that is almost synonymous with thumb-typing on a mobile phone.
  • Nokia: the Nokia/Symbian world is complicated. Having personally handled dozens of Nokia phones, I would summarize that their strength is in their diversity of offerings to multiple levels of the marketplace. This is also their weakness. With countless products, three current operating systems, and a solid-but-aging feel on much of their hardware, it is hard to believe that Nokia still outsells its nearest smartphone competitor at more than a 2-to-1 ratio. But while they are not as strong in North America, Nokia is a major player in Europe and downright dominant in many other regions of the world. It is hard to discount a company that produces over 1 million phones per day (yes, you read that correctly). With the incredible depth of carrier relationships and distribution channels which they have developed, Nokia's challenge now is to fill those channels with products that compete with their ever-growing range of competitors.
  • Google: Google has garnered a lot of attention since announcing the open-source (and freely available) Android platform in 2007. By providing a smartphone operating system that is free and extensible, Android has garnered support from dozens of handset manufacturers including major players like Motorola and HTC. In contrast to Apple, Google's greatest strength (and weakness) is its openness. I am personally very impressed with most of the Android devices I have used, and as a consumer I have great optimism that Android will be a force to be reckoned with in mobile technology. But I also recognize that openness can lead to fragmentation, and I've heard a lot of grumbling from developers about the lack of standards on Android devices. As Microsoft learned when it allowed device manufacturers and wireless carriers to customize experiences based on its Windows Mobile platforms, I believe that the many emerging flavours of Android devices will make it difficult for developers to target. That said, I believe that Google's ability to integrate the mobile experience with all of their other web-based services will make it a formidable player in the mobile space, and I believe the fragmentation issue can be overcome as Google and other Android licensees learn to coexist.
  • Windows Mobile: I recently spoke about the forthcoming Windows 7 Phone Series, so I won't repeat myself on the details. Suffice to say that I think Microsoft has re-entered the mobile race, and demonstrated that they are not planning to turn away from this increasingly important battlefield. Microsoft has learned a lot of lessons over more than a decade in mobile computing, and I believe their enterprise roots will serve them well as they re-assert themselves with a brand new mobile platform. What remains to be seen is whether Microsoft can garner enough consumer interest to unseat competitors in the mass market, or whether it will continue to play a more niche role as an enterprise solution.
I have not even mentioned the likes of Palm (webOS), Samsung (bada), Linux Mobile (LiMo), or expanded on the now open-source Symbian OS (the Nokia-bred OS that was recently spun off as a freely available platform). And there are others... but the rabbit hole is simply too deep to cover here, so I will get back to the purpose of my post: to discuss the impact of mobile platform trends on market research.

There are fundamentally two ways to engage people on their mobile devices in a data-intensive way: (1) via their web browser; and (2) using a downloadable application. 
  • Mobile web browsers are improving in capability and usability, and are finally emerging as a lowest-common-denominator approach to mobile engagement. If you need to reach a lot of people in a relatively shallow way, e.g. to conduct a brief mobile survey about a product or experience, then a mobile browser may well be the way to go. Although mobile browsers are still fragmented, the emergence of mobile web technologies such as HTML 5, JavaScript, CSS and Adobe Flash are making it more viable to reach a wide mobile audience.
  • Downloadable applications provide a richer user experience for applications such as diary studies and mobile panels, but they are typically harder to deploy to a broad range of users. Also dovetailing with Sean's recent post about quality over quantity, I would argue that in many cases a more select audience that is highly engaged is more valuable than a broad audience that is minimally engaged. It is these cases -- for example digital ethnography with alarms to trigger highly contextual questions at random times -- where mobile apps really shine.
Bear with me as I attempt to tie all of this information together...

The mobile jungle is in some ways becoming more wild every day, but I am also seeing signs that a handful of gorillas may be starting to establish some turf. While I don't believe that all five gorillas outlined here will win over the long term, each one represents sufficient market share and resources to be considered as key players for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, I think we will begin to see some stabilization of mobile platforms, resulting in more reliable ways to reach the masses via both web browsers and downloadable applications.

For the next while solutions focused on mobile research will have to choose between "wide and shallow" or "narrow and deep" -- i.e. either focus on reaching a broad range of people with a more basic level of engagement, or on providing a high level of engagement within a more narrow scope of users.  I don't feel that one is inherently better than the other, and both represent significant opportunities within the burgeoning mobile research space.

Over the long term the two paths that I have identified will converge. In the meantime, having invested a lot of time and energy developing methods to engage people in a deep and meaningful way, I am a big believer in the power of rich mobile applications. With over 3 Billion application downloads in less than 18 months, Apple has more than proven the viability of downloadable apps, and all other major platforms have since poured significant resources into their own mobile app stores.

Over the next while it is prudent to focus on the five key players I have identified here: Apple, RIM, Nokia, Google and Microsoft. But peripheral vision is often what sets the great apart from the good, so I allow my eyes to wander a bit in search of innovative smaller players that might just have a thing or two to teach the gorillas. 

Smartphone Sales Up 24 Percent, iPhone’s Share Nearly Doubled Last Year (Gartner)

Thursday, February 25, 2010 by Samantha Singh

Mobile OS 2009 Market Share (Gartner)
Last year, Apple’s iPhone nearly doubled its worldwide market share of smartphone sales to 14.4 percent, up 6.2 points from the year before, according to the latest market share figures put out by Gartner. The iPhone still trails behind Nokia’s Symbian-powered smartphones (No. 1), which saw their share decline 5.5 points to 46.9 percent, and RIM Blackberries (No. 2), which gained 3.3 points to end the year with a 19.9 percent share.

Remember, these are worldwide estimates.  In the U.S., both Blackberry and Apple are much larger than Symbian. And when it comes to mobile Web traffic, Apple and Android dominate with 81 percent share.  According to Gartner, Android phone sales jumped 3.4 points (to 3.9 percent), but Android is still smaller than WIndows Mobile or Linux. Those mobile OSes, however, saw their market share drop  3.1 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Palm’s WebOS barely made a mark with 0.7 percent share.

See the original post:
Smartphone Sales Up 24 Percent, iPhone’s Share Nearly Doubled Last Year (Gartner)

Mobile Research - How many participants is "enough"?

Tuesday, February 23, 2010 by Sean Conry
A lot of our clients immediately jump to the concept of "reach" when they first begin to think about mobile research and wireless surveys. They worry that only a small percentage of their panel might be willing to take a survey on their phone, and they think that hard-to-reach groups (like teens) are the perfect audience for mobile research. 

Sure, using consumer engagement techniques that make your interactions more personal and portable should make them inherently more relevant, thereby increasing response and reducing churn.

But that's not what's really exciting about cellular surveys. My favourite conversation with clients is the one when the light goes on the realization sets in that mobile research is about so much more than putting traditional online surveys on a small screen.

What's really exciting is the new reality that as researchers we can take advantage of the billions of dollars that device manufacturers pour into R&D. Built-in functions such as taking photos and capturing GPS coordinates are just the beginning - even so, these basic capabilities provide us with some pretty astounding options for gaining insights from targeted mobile groups and communities!

So how many people do I need in my mobile panel? I by no means decry the important science of sampling, but check out this article that explores how big the ideal online research community should be, and hopefully you too will start to become a believer in quality over quantity.



What's Old is New: Wading in on Windows Phone 7 Series

Monday, February 15, 2010 by Mark Cameron
With the announcement of Windows Phone 7 Series today, Microsoft has re-entered the heavyweight category of the mobile space in a big way.

With a completely new "minimalist" interface that incorporates Xbox Live and Zune music, and a fresh approach to social media integration, this new Windows platform could be as significant for mobile computing as the introduction of the iPhone was three years ago.

The video below gives a quick hands-on look at this new Windows platform:




I believe the Windows Phone 7 Series will bring Microsoft back from the brink of irrelevance in consumer adoption of mobile phones. Microsoft has long been a leader in mobile business computing, but without sufficient buzz in the consumer space it has been increasingly difficult for Windows Mobile phones to assert themselves against the likes of iPhone, Blackberry and Android. Much like Palm did last year with its webOS launch, Microsoft has reinvented itself in an impressive and refreshing way.

I was really pleased to see that the user experience for new Windows phones will be far more controlled than it was for previous generations of Windows Mobile devices. Whereas Microsoft has long supported a great deal of flexibility in how its mobile operating systems were implemented by device manufacturers and wireless carriers, they have stated that Windows Phone 7 Series implementations will adhere to standards around screen size, memory requirements and user interface. This is great news for mobile developers and end-users, and for anyone looking to engage mobile users, as it will result in a more consistent user experience regardless of brand or network.

Mobile phone ecosystems range from the tightly controlled world of the Apple iPhone/iPod/iPad to the wide-open universe that Google has created for Android.  Until today, I considered Microsoft to be near the "wide open" end of the spectrum, but with the arrival of Windows Phone 7 Series it appears that Microsoft has learned from its fragmented mobile past.

While we are seeing continued divergence in the mobile space with a frenzy of new platforms and manufacturers, I am optimistic that we are also seeing signs of consolidation and standardization. This will ultimately make it easier for businesses (and researchers) to engage people regardless of what mobile device they are carrying in their purse, pocket or briefcase.

A New Type of Professional Respondent

Monday, February 15, 2010 by Sean Conry
We talk a lot about trying to get deeper insights by using new mobile research tools that are personal, portable and relevant. But maybe we're missing the boat. There's a lot of money to be made in being a professional respondent, right? 

"It's hard to keep up with all of those online polls on my busy schedule..."

Check this out for a fun view of our industry that brings the concept of "professional respondent" to a whole new level:



Examining the effectiveness of mobile phone support for helping smokers quit

Wednesday, February 10, 2010 by Samantha Singh

Legacy’s Schroeder Institute has selected Techneos’ SODA™ Mobile Access Platform to power an innovative study examining the effectiveness of mobile phone support for the D.C. Tobacco Quitline. See the full press release, here.

Traditionally researchers conduct panels and surveys asking participants about their thoughts, opinions, and sentiments, but what about participants’ level of engagement?  I came across an article presented at ESOMAR’s Asia Pacific Conference last year, nominated for the Excellence Best Paper, and titled, “What does Research 2.0 mean to consumers in Asia Pacific?”  In their presentation, Poynter et al. asked the question; to what extent are consumers in Asia Pacific responding to co-creation and collaboration initiatives?  Are they responding differently than other consumers around the globe?

Technology is clearly altering the way research is undertaken on a global scale, yet it remains to be seen which particular settings, cultural contexts and end user experiences are most conducive to strong consumer and study participant engagement. 

Legacy’s research addresses this technology question and examines how mobile phone support can help participants become more engaged in the Quitline program, request assistance and input from one-another, and ultimately, quit.

New Restrictions on Research Incentives

Thursday, January 21, 2010 by Sean Conry
The rules of research are about to change in Spring 2010. The MRS (UK's professional association for researchers) will begin enforcement of a new ban on use of client goods or services as incentives in a research project.

So many corporate communities, especially branded panels, rely heavily on this very technique for survey conducting.

Who can deny the reason behind it? I remember answering a poll in a teen magazine (was that really decades ago?) where I purposefully skewed my answers to highlight my desire to see more of the content that they were providing in that very issue. I thought it would increase my chances of winning the cash prize! But in fact I couldn't have cared less about Menudo.

With DIY research making a stronger push than ever, how does this affect the position of the professional researcher who is already challenged when trying to coach clients about the "right" way of doing things?

Maybe the promise of mobile research where true engagement through 2-way communication occurs will emerge one technique that can gain answers without bribes. But we'll never escape it will we? Time is money, especially when it comes to hard-to-reach populations.

Maybe it's no big deal. Cash always been king when it comes to the incentive that works for everyone. But where does that leave financial research? :)

Techneos' Mark Cameron to co-present for mobile research webinar

Thursday, December 10, 2009 by Susan Bilczo
Mark Cameron, Co-founder and Owner of Techneos, is co-presenting with a number of other mobile research industry leaders at the Upcoming Trends, Do's and Don'ts for Mobile Research webinar hosted by Peanut Labs.

The free webinar is new Wednesday, December 16th from 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM PST. If you are interested, you can read more on the webinar and sign up here.

Techneos adds GPS and photo capture capabilities to SODA Mobile Access Platform

Thursday, December 3, 2009 by Susan Bilczo
Techneos' mobile survey and engagement suite, SODA 1.1 Mobile Access Platform, was released today featuring added capabilities such as GPS/location capture, photo capture and compatibility with Google Android mobile devices.

Read more here...

Are we in for a wireless traffic jam?

Thursday, November 26, 2009 by Mark Cameron
I read a fascinating blog post from Michael Mace at mobileopportunity.blogspot.com, called "The mobile data apocalypse and what it means for you". I won't paraphrase Michael's comments, which were insightful as always, but I urge you to read the article if you are considering how to incorporate mobile technology into your business.

There is growing concern that wireless data usage is about to explode. The main culprits for this will be web browsing and multi-media streaming, which have grown by leaps and bounds since the launch of the iPhone. 

Personally, I agree with Michael that the doomsayers' estimates of expansion to the point of implosion will turn out to be far-fetched (I look forward to his next article on that subject). Smart people will find ways to reduce data usage and to solve the bandwidth problem, and may even allow unlimited data plans to be viable over the long term. But there is also little doubt that we are heading for at least some uncomfortable congestion on the wireless super-highway, and possibly worse.

I am often asked why downloadable applications will matter in mobile computing when the wireless web provides an easier and more ubiquitous solution to many problems. I am a bit fan of the wireless web, and I believe that any serious mobile strategy has to recognize the web browser as a key channel for communicating with people on mobile devices. But you can't beat the responsiveness and performance of an application that is installed on a device, just as Windows applications are still more usable in most cases than their web counterparts.

Hybrid applications are an ideal solution for many business tasks. E-mail software is a good example. While mobile e-mail is highly dependent on a wireless network, it also leverages the power and usability of the device on which it runs. The e-mail client connects to the network as needed to send and receive e-mails, but it does not depend on a persistent connection or clog up wireless bandwidth unnecessarily.

The mobile web is getting better everyday, and that is turning out to be a double-edged sword. As web usage soars with the explosive growth of Smartphone and Netbook adoption, the very thing that is driving that growth -- anytime, anywhere access to information -- is likely to cause some major hiccups along the way. I'm betting on the mobile web long-term, but in the meantime I'll be quite content to keep my data safe and sound on a mobile device, and run applications that use the inherent power of the computer that I call my phone.


A symphony of mobile phones

Friday, November 13, 2009 by Susan Bilczo
It's true. Mobile phones really can be used for everything. Check out this symphony made up entirely of mobile phones.



Looking back: mobile phone commercial from 1990

Friday, November 6, 2009 by Susan Bilczo
Mobile phones sure have come a long way...



The Frustration of Mobility and Reach

Wednesday, October 28, 2009 by Sean Conry
In my last post, I wondered about device market share and it's affect on our ability to reach the right people for survey conducting.

I focused on the manufacturer / operating system, but another element also has a significant affect on reach. I guess you could call it Mode. We normally talk about mode in terms of whether we're collecting data over the web, over the phone, face-to-face, etc. Mobile is it's own mode, but there are choices within that mode.  

Specifically, the primary mobile mode possibilities for a mobile survey system are text message, mobile web, and applications.

Check out this interview/podcast from a recent interview at a CASRO event. Heidi Dickert has some good points about how a different type of technology is required when looking at mobile surveys. The message? You can't just replicate the same old approach when it comes to mobile research.





Text messages give you ubiquitous reach, but the commonly held experience among those I speak with is that SMS surveys are good only for very, very quick polls. The burden on the respondent is high, and you can only squeeze in 3-4 questions before participation drops off - and if you haven't seen it yourself, believe me, it doesn't just stumble off the curb, it careens off the grand canyon.

Mobile web feels like it should be familiar since CAWI has taken over as the primary mode of choice in so many countries. However, the problem is that the mobile web isn't great yet for the vast majority of users. You still need a lot of patience. Think about a news page that requires 10 seconds to load, but then you spend 5 minutes reading. That's much more palatable when compared to refreshing screen after screen after screen of a mobile web survey. To reinforce this, check out Mobile Marketer's recent article about slow load time is the #1 performance issue on the mobile web.

Off course we believe in Applications (particularly Java where possible, native where needed). With iPhone App store just reaching it's 2 Billionth download in September, and Facebook's install base leaping from 2 million to 10.5 million in two months with the release of targeted Java versions, the path seems pretty clear to us...

Cheap Netbook for Mobile Data Collection

Tuesday, October 27, 2009 by Sean Conry
Hardware markets have never been so attractive. 


Check out the hot deal on the ASUS Eee PC with Windows at $285.

MCAPI used to only apply to PDA Survey Software, but with the introduction and proliferation of Netbooks, and powerful mobile survey packages like the ones offered by my company,  now you can easily deploy complex surveys to small and large screens alike, depending on your project need.

The latest on mobile market share - coverage & reach

Monday, October 19, 2009 by Sean Conry
The two main considerations in picking a mobile research methodology are capability (what kind of work am I enabled to do?) and coverage (who can I reach with that capability?). Those of us in research care so much about market share of mobile devices because it profoundly affects both elements.

We need to reach people. But it's not just any people we need - we need to reach the right people. A colleague of mine recently held a focus group and noted - "hey - there are an awful lot of artists and musicians in this group..." Did his recruiter get the mix of participants right? Maybe, but probably not (you'd think so too, if I told you the category ).

To a marketer, the more people you can reach, the more mindshare you can gain with your ads to promote revenue growth. Marketers talk about how to reach a target market with their message because they need to know they are spending their money wisely.  However, the reason researchers care about the number of people who see our "message" (say, a survey invitation), is because of our sampling frame. We need the right people to provide us with feedback in order to help solve the business problem at hand.

In short, researchers have to worry about it even more because the science of our analytics depends on it. Without reach, my colleague wouldn't even have had artists and musicians to talk to. 

So, it's very interesting to see what Gartner is predicting for the future of Mobile OS market share. They say Android will overtake Research In Motion’s BlackBerry OS, the iPhone OS and Windows Mobile to capture 14.5% of the smartphone market within three years.

"Symbian’s market share will fall from around half of the global market to just 39%, according to Gartner. Apple will maintain its third place and Windows Mobile will stay in fourth. However, RIM’s BlackBerry OS will fall from second place to fifth,"

If you're thinking about partnering with a survey system supplier to provide cellphone survey capabilities, then make sure they have an expertise and plan in place to meet all of the different flavours of these platforms as they explode in the next two years, otherwise you may never overcome the problem of reach.

Cheap Interview Devices Still Exist

Thursday, October 8, 2009 by Sean Conry

If you're a real cheapskate like me, and you've been biding your time before making a new hardware investment, then look no longer. The next release of inexpensive smartphone technology for MCAPI interviews and diary studies has arrived.


Treo 500 - inexpensive interview deviceCheck out the unlocked Palm Treo 500 for $119.  Incredible.


Just make sure you're willing to live with a QWERTZ keyboard - (in Germany, they switch the Z with the Y.. go figure).

Some shameless promotion here, but with Techneos' new SaaS pay-per-complete options, there's never been a more affordable time to equip your field force or diary respondents with a world-class mobile interview system.

Market Research makes it in Hollywood

Wednesday, September 30, 2009 by Sean Conry

For many outside of our industry, Market Research has always been a fuzzy concept, and let's face it, a weird choice of career.

But no longer! A major Hollywood movie (Last Chance Harvey) features a market researcher as a main character.

Last chance Harvey Interviewer Screen capture

But what is she doing with pen and paper? What an antiquated approach! We would expect her to be using a computer assisted personal interviewing system or some kind of PDA survey software, of course. Where are these movie script writers doing their research?

Legal Note: This post in no way confirms that my wife convinced me to watch a movie which could be described as a Romance Drama.

Google and WPP offer $4.6m in research grants

Monday, September 28, 2009 by Susan Bilczo
If you are an academic researcher, you may want to take advantage of Google's and WPP's offering of $4.6 million in funding for media research grants on a variety of topics, including online and offline media interaction, relevance and effectiveness measurement, audience types and engagement, and verticals and new media.

Our company specializes in diary research tools that have been used extensively to study media exposure, linking it to environment, mood and other consumer behavior. So, using our mobile data collection tools may be a perfect solution for research you conduct with this grant money.